As we continue to work to understand North Carolina we are struck by several challenging but possible opportunities. It was a shame that Chief Justice Beasley lost her Senate bid by 121K votes when she received a million more votes in 2020 than in 2022. Voter mobilization will be key. North Carolina is a place where narrow margins have dominated elections flipping back and forth from Republican to Democrat at the top levels while gerrymandering and voter suppression has dominated at the state house and lower ballot levels.
It is likely that the 2024 election will be no different where the Presidential election could be decided by 75,000 voters out of 5.4 million or less than 1.5%. As US News reports:
“In recent years, North Carolina has mostly hosted close statewide races. During the 2020 and 2022 elections, North Carolina held 16 federal and state races for statewide office – and no candidate in any of them won more than 54% of the vote.”
The Opportunity
North Carolina has been an ignored battleground that could be on the cusp of a strategic turnaround. We have numerous examples of where we have participated in this kind of effort. From San Diego and the Inland Empire in CA, to Georgia, and to Wisconsin we have been at the forefront of efforts to build infrastructure that can turnout votes in as unlikely areas as Green Bay and Kenosha, WI. With 33% Dem/30% Rep/36% Unaffiliated registration in NC we have an opportunity to turn things around there too. With 39% of the population people of color we have an opportunity to set roots and work to turn that state around in the next 3 cycles. We will win victories along the way including the Presidential, as well as key state supreme court seats, knocking out the conservative state house supermajorities, the governor’s race, and more down ballot seats. We think this is a great opportunity if we can target increasing or flipping turnout by 150K votes. We have moved even more in places like Georgia, California, and soon Wisconsin.
Strategy
We tend to use a 5% threshold for increasing progressive turnout with a focus on communities of color, young white voters, and women voters. Our overall ambitious target will be to identify as close to 367K infrequent and new progressive voters who can help us secure progressive wins. However, our more sober numbers will be contacting 200K voters with a target of turning out 150K for November 2024. Along the way we hope to win some local battles by building our turnout models. We have a lot of experience working with local grassroots organizations we can complement with digital strategies that reach rural and urban areas equally. This allows us to access a much larger voter population and target ground forces accordingly. We had great success in WI and GA with that work. We will execute a full strategy with key research and information that drives narrative formation (tying in environmental justice, social justice, and governmental accountability), targeting and key operations.
There are four key components to successfully executing a plan to bump turnout of progressive voters by 5%:
- Strong analytics and targeting
- Local/regional battles (state house seats) tied into national priorities (US Senate race)
- Key operational grassroots partners (a coalition)
- Fully integrated digital communications (email, social media and text)
Plans
Donor Investment
We have ties to donors in NC and hope to build more donor participation in a multi cycle investment to turn NC around. They have a good donor table there and we are allies with some of the givers at that table. We will coordinate efforts with them to market the work nationally.
Local Partners
We also have some inroads to local organizations that are already building up their capacity for c4 and PAC activities. We will build a strong collaboration with local partners that enhances their capacity to engage in power building beyond the election. Our technical assistance will help the groups build out their capabilities to engage voters at all levels with fully integrated platforms and tools.
Voter Turnout
Target turnout of 200K voters in 2024 cycles to boost turnout by at least 1.5% and close gaps for targeted seats in the NC legislature and Governor’s race.
Build Lists
Build a robust data and targeting effort to grow the target population. Set up expert data management and communications strategies that can help build on work cycle after cycle.
Budgetary needs:
For North Carolina, we are hoping to raise $1.5 million for our efforts. If successful, this is how we would use the funds. The Targeted Field would also include regrants to support local power building. We have a formula that we use generally to fund this work. It is structured like this:
| 1,500,000.00 | ←Budget Total | ||
| Research & Analysis | 10% | 150,000.00 | |
| Targeted Field | 45% | 675,000.00 | |
| Signature Events | 5% | 75,000.00 | |
| Digital Organizing | 30% | 450,000.00 | |
| Administration | 10% | 150,000.00 |
From Candidates to Issues
PowerPAC implements campaigns at every level.